Google outlines 6 cybersecurity predictions for 2023

It’s no secret that cybercrime is a growth industry. Just last year, the FBI estimated that internet crime cost $6.9 billion. The worst news is that Google’s 2023 cybersecurity forecasts predict that this malicious economy will only continue to grow and diversify.

VentureBeat recently had the opportunity to connect with some of Google’s top security leaders and analysts. They indicated that threat actor techniques will evolve significantly over the next 12 months.

Predictions include an increase in ransomware and insider risks as attackers target trusted employees with extortion attempts; Cybercrime “suppliers” are shifting to new business models; and, more positively, wider adoption of passkey technology. Read on for their full insights.

1. Identity and authentication attacks remain a constant threat

“Organizations will continue to struggle with identity and authentication-related attacks, with relatively inexperienced threat actors able to buy credentials in the underground or penetrate the organization.

“As a result, platform makers will be pressured to help consumers and businesses defend against malware that steals those credentials.”

— Heather Adkins, VP of security engineering, Google

2. Insider risk increases as threat actors target trusted employees

“We will see increasing risks to insiders, with attackers trying to coerce and extort otherwise trusted insiders to commit malicious acts. Meanwhile, federated identity and authentication providers will increasingly come under attack to try and attack other software-as-a-service (SaaS) providers.

“We will also see people begin to realize the Y2K scale level of the work associated with the transition to post-quantum cryptography.”

— Phil Venables, (CISO), Google Cloud

3. Ransomware attacks on the public and private sectors will continue to increase

“Globally, we will see the continued growth and prominence of ransomware attacks everywhere [the] public and private sector. Across the broader attack surface, industry-specific threats and opportunities will grow, impacting industries such as healthcare, energy, finance, and more.

“As an industry, our ongoing research and work on supply chain security, especially after major attacks, will continue to reveal how much more collaboration is needed.”

— Royal Hansen, VP of privacy, safety and security, Google

4. Broader adoption of passkey technology

“In addition to password management and account security improvements, we will see wider adoption of password keys by developers [and] users, and in [the] common security language.

“We can also expect SMS/one-time password (OTP) phishing to continue to increase, so websites and apps are more likely to use password keys for both consumer-facing and internal management tools.

“In a hybrid enterprise environment and with more work on the web, the browser becomes an even more strategic asset for enterprise security.

“In terms of workforce, the demand for cybersecurity experience and capacity at all levels of organizations in the private and public sectors will continue to outpace available talent. This will underline the need for investment in the development of multidisciplinary cybersecurity skills for the future.”

— Parisa Tabriz, VP of Chrome Browser, Google

5. Cybercrime vendors will shift their business models

“We will see more pressure on commercial spyware vendors and hack-for-hire operators, both from technology companies and governments. However, these threat actors will not disappear; instead we will see reorganization, renaming and some shifts in business models.

“Globally, China and Russia will continue to focus strongly on regional issues, including activities related to Ukraine.

“As campaigns for the 2024 election begin, campaign and election security will be key issues, including information operations (IO.) discussion.”

— Shane Huntley, senior director of Google’s Threat Analysis Group (TAG).

6. Cybercriminals will target reused passwords and secret question fields

“With so many data breaches circulating on the dark web, we will see a wave of attacks that use not only reused passwords, but all secret question fields (date of birth, SSN, street addresses or others).

“To defend themselves, apps and websites will increasingly use secure authentication such as federated identity and passwords – instead of username, password, SMS code and others – with the added benefit of making these mechanisms simpler and more convenient for users as well. ”

— Mark Risher, senior director for platforms and ecosystems at Google